April's Fools---Possible Verses Probable


Synonyms for possible:
Likely
Conceivable
Imaginable
Thinkable
Definition:  Capable of happening, existing, or being true without contradicting proven facts, laws, or circumstances

Synonyms for probable:
Likely
Credible
Feasible
Plausible
Definition:  likely to be the case or to happen. Likely but uncertain; plausible.

“Possible but not probable” was a phrase I heard repeated many times over while volunteering at the FHL.  Sure it is possible that a family would have 4 children in England and then have a child in the United States and then move back to England to have 2 more children—it could happen, but it probably didn’t especially in the 1700’s.  Knowing and understanding history and the society our family came from helps us understand what was feasible and traditional during the time-period in question.   Behaviors and customs must be considered while supporting documents need to be found to “prove” our theories. 

Just because something is “possible” doesn’t mean that it there is a likelihood it happened.  People didn’t cross the ocean repeatedly especially in the 1700’s or even in the 1800’s.  During those time-periods, immigrating was an “once-in-a-lifetime” event, unless you were employed as a ship-hand or captain.  Sometimes our desire to grasp at a theory or hypothesis leads us down a far-fetched road, but sometimes truth is stranger than fiction.  So how do you know if your theory is “far-fetched” or “stranger than fiction”?  First ask yourself if it actually makes sense.  If it does, then begin the research required to prove your theory.  Everything is provable, either now or in 20 years!  Search for those documents that will support and prove your theory.  I have a separate file for my “theories” that haven’t been proven.  When I am finally able to locate that piece of evidence that proves my theory, I can easily move the information into software and to my document collection.  However, if I find my theory is incorrect, I am relieved I don’t have to remove the information from my software or retrieve the documents from my mass of sources!

Some information I have been hanging onto for over 20 years waiting for that shred of evidence to prove my theory. I would rather be known as a document hoarder than an incompetent researcher!   To save myself research time, I begin by asking myself, is this possible A-N-D probable?

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